The Goldilocks Crisis

Flash fiction by Bruce Kasanoff

Nathan Fernando, the moderator of a panel at Davos on the future of artificial general intelligence, was tired and ill at ease. He’d spent days interacting with some of the smartest and most successful people on the planet, but the elite nature of the Davos crowd didn’t reflect the general nature of humanity.

Sitting on the plane back to the U.S., he confessed as much to Lydia, the woman sitting next to him. He assumed she had also attended the World Economic Forum, but she hadn’t actually said so.

“For 30 years,” Nathan said, “IT innovators have tried to give humans better tools to make them smarter: the internet, social media, digital books, 24/7 news, smartphones, wireless, and so on.

“What’s been the result? A massive increase in mental health issues among our youth, while our public policy discussions—and societal interactions—have gotten dumber and dumber, and increasingly harsh and vile. What reason is there to believe that giving everyone more powerful technologies is a good idea?”

Lydia nodded and sat up straighter in her seat. “Let’s consider three possibilities.

“First, technology amplifies human tendencies. The internet and social media didn’t create new flaws in human behavior; they magnified existing ones. Polarization, misinformation, and attention scarcity existed long before these technologies, but the speed and scale of digital tools have made them harder to manage.

“Second, productivity often beats wisdom. The goal of many technological innovations has been to make life faster, easier, and more convenient… but often at the cost of depth, reflection, and emotional intelligence.

“Third, many of the most impactful technologies were designed to capture our attention and monetize it. This focus on profit-driven design creates a mismatch between what people need for personal growth and what these tools deliver.”

“Right,” said Nathan, who was starting to suspect she was a McKinsey consultant. They often started sentences with three possibilities.

“And what’s changed recently? Are we increasing our focus on enhancing human wisdom, emotional intelligence, and collaboration… rather than exploiting weaknesses in attention and self-control?”

Lydia sipped her gin and tonic. “Not even close.”

“Are we developing widely accepted guidelines and cultural norms for healthier engagement with technology? Are we successfully encouraging intentional use rather than passive consumption?”

Lydia said, “I’d say that online we are swearing, lying, and cheating more with every passing day.”

A wave of anxiety hit Nathan, a highly intelligent, motivated, and driven man. He was usually three steps ahead of everyone else, but at this moment, he was having trouble seeing even two steps ahead.

“The forces shaping our tech-driven world are largely unopposed,” he began. “Governments and institutions are slow to regulate in any sort of effective manner, tech companies resist reform unless it’s PR-friendly, and individuals are often overwhelmed, disengaged, or unaware of the larger forces at play.

“If no one is pursuing solutions at scale, maybe the real question becomes: What would it take to create the momentum to enable technology to magnify the positive aspects of our society, rather than the negative?”

Lydia frowned. “Are you looking for a polite answer or the harsh truth?”

“The latter,” said Nathan.

“The best-case scenario is a Goldilocks crisis,” she said. “An event so powerful it shakes the foundation of everything we believe—and is impossible to ignore—but one that isn’t even one percent harsher than it needs to be.”

The flight attendant interrupted them to ask if they’d like another drink. “Yes,” they said in unison.

Nathan stared at the palms of his hands, a habit he sometimes used to buy another few seconds to think. “In our current situation, what level of crisis would be just the right size?”

Lydia responded, “Let’s think out loud. AI is viewed as the single biggest economic opportunity of our lifetimes. Leaders see it as a race between the biggest geopolitical powers, a heroic struggle. Most are afraid or unwilling to slow down.”

“So we are talking very big,” said Nathan.

“Huge,” said Lydia. “5,000 Teslas crash at the same time…” She lowered her voice and leaned in, “Or every plane falls out of the sky.”

“That doesn’t sound like a Goldilocks-level crisis to me,” he said.

“How many houses were destroyed this month by wildfires in LA?” she asked.

“Ten or fifteen thousand,” he responded.

“What are the odds that people are going to rebuild more houses in the exact same dangerous places?”

“Almost 100%,” Nathan said. He took a long gulp of his drink.

“You’re saying we are slow to learn from our mistakes.”

“Slow beyond belief,” said Lydia.

“But what sane person wants a crisis of that magnitude to happen?”

Lydia paused. She looked out the window at the Atlantic Ocean below.

“One who can do math?”

“It’s late. I’m tired,” confessed Nathan. “We’re being awfully negative.”

“Are we?” Lydia asked. “Or are we being more honest? And one more thing… there’s another aspect to a Goldilocks crisis. The stars need to be aligned perfectly so that the crisis has the necessary, ultimately positive impact, rather than merely contributing to the chaos at large.”

"Never waste a good crisis?” responded Nathan.

“Yes,” said Lydia. “The crisis needs to inescapably have one effect. That can’t be debatable. 5,000 cars crash, we take all the self-driving cars off the road. All the planes go down, everyone stops flying.”

“Let’s say I buy into this logic… and I don’t,” responded Nathan. “What kind of crisis could possibly be so precisely calibrated as to realign technological and human development in a positive direction for decades to come?”

Lydia (not her real name) smiled sadly. “That’s what I went to Davos to puzzle out.”

That caught Nathan’s attention. He took a hard look at the woman sitting next to him. She stared right into his eyes for a long moment, then said, “You probably don’t want to ask me any more questions. We ought to get some sleep.”

Note from Bruce: This story isn’t exactly uplifting, although most of my stories are. It was inspired by this fascinating (real) panel discussion, that I watched a few hours ago:

The Dawn of Artificial General Intelligence?

Speakers: Andrew Ng, Yoshua Bengio, Nicholas Thompson, Yejin Choi, Jonathan Ross, Thomas Wolf